Research
The work behind the markets.
What the partnership watches, where the figures come from, and what they say as of October 2026. Updated each quarter. Observations, not a forecast, and not an offer.
01 · The debt
Interest-only periods are ending.
Many ten-year agency loans written between 2016 and 2019 carried five or seven years of interest-only payments. Those periods are over. The same loans now amortize, and they mature between 2025 and 2029. Principal payments change an owner's cash flow, and a refinance at today's rates may not cover the existing balance.
That is where the partnership looks first: suburban garden-style and townhome communities whose existing loan can be assumed, so an acquisition does not depend on new bridge debt.
- of multifamily CMBS balance maturing in the second half of 2026 would need borrower cash to refinance
- 52%
- would need 20% or more of new equity
- 41%
- of interest-only loans in the sample need a cash-in, against 23% of amortizing loans
- 80%
Trepp analysis as reported by CRE Daily (July 23, 2026) and BizPac Review (September 24, 2026). The Mortgage Bankers Association puts multifamily mortgages maturing in 2026 at about $297 billion, with about $223 billion in 2027.
02 · The screen
How a loan gets on the list.
Read the loan documents
Freddie Mac K-deal offering circulars list each loan's origination, term, interest-only period, and maturity. The partnership calculates when interest-only ended rather than relying on a summary field.
Keep the product and the place
Suburban garden-style and townhome communities in the five target states, checked against Census metro definitions so urban-core and rural properties fall out.
Confirm the owner and the history
County property records show who owns the property and whether it has sold since the loan was made, which usually means the loan was paid off or assumed.
Then, and only then, a conversation
Nothing goes to an owner or broker until both partners have looked at it. No lead, loan, or property from the screen is published on this site.
03 · The markets
People, supply, and rent.
The three questions asked of every market, by state. The full read for each state is on the target markets page.
| State | Where the partnership looks | Population, 2024–25 | Five-plus permits, Jan–Aug 2026 | Rent, September 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | Winston-Salem; Cary (Raleigh MSA); Mooresville (Charlotte MSA) | +1.3% | Winston-Salem −28% Raleigh–Cary +8% Charlotte +14% | Winston-Salem $1,142, +1.0% Cary $1,511, +0.8% |
| South Carolina | Charleston and Greenville MSAs | +1.5% | Charleston +1% | Charleston $1,708, +2.9% Greenville $1,435, flat |
| Iowa | Des Moines MSA: Ankeny, West Des Moines, Urbandale | +0.2% | Des Moines −41% | West Des Moines $1,211, +2.1% Urbandale $1,190, +1.0% |
| Kentucky | Louisville MSA: Louisville, Oldham County, southern Indiana | +0.5% | Louisville −45% | Louisville $1,200, flat Jeffersonville, Ind. $1,130, +0.6% |
| Tennessee | Nashville MSA: Murfreesboro, Franklin; Chattanooga | +0.9% | Nashville −37% | Murfreesboro $1,408, +3.8% Franklin $1,781, −1.2% Chattanooga $1,215, +0.8% |
04 · Sources
Where the figures come from.
- Loan termsFreddie Mac Multifamily K-Deal offering circulars. capitalmarkets.freddiemac.com
- Refinancing pressureTrepp CMBS maturity analysis, as reported by CRE Daily, July 23, 2026. credaily.com
- Maturities by yearMortgage Bankers Association, as reported by BizPac Review, September 24, 2026. bizpacreview.com
- PopulationU.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2025 population estimates. census.gov
- New supplyU.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey, metro files through August 2026. census.gov
- RentsApartment List city rent reports, October 2026. apartmentlist.com
- Pipeline and occupancyYardi Matrix metro reports, summer 2026. yardimatrix.com
Last updated October 15, 2026. Next update January 2027.